Quick follow-up… I was too quick to do a pull request on GitHub. I closed my pull request, as someone had previously encountered this problem and made a pull request 2 days ago. Here is that pull request: in updates XML always resulted in an error #38121
In the interim, until they fix this issue in a new Joomla release, the only thing I can do to circumvent it is to remove the database requirement entirely from the update XML file.